On October 23, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, delivered a speech at a conference in Tehran, as reported by Reuters. According to a New York Times article published on October 26, the 85-year-old Khamenei is said to be in poor health, raising questions about the possibility of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, potentially succeeding him. This comes at a time when Iran faces a dilemma regarding whether to retaliate against Israel, amid a growing power struggle for succession within its political landscape.

The New York Times described a series of airstrikes carried out by Israel on October 26, targeting various military sites in Iran, including missile production facilities and air defense systems, resulting in the deaths of four soldiers. Iran is now confronted with a challenging decision: retaliate while its economy is struggling and its military is perceived as vulnerable, which could escalate tensions further, or refrain from action and risk appearing weak to its regional allies and hardliners within the country.

Reuters reported that Tehran downplayed the impact of the attacks on the same day, with state television continuing regular programming and lacking major announcements of retaliation. The Iranian Foreign Ministry reiterated its “right and obligation” to self-defense while also emphasizing its responsibility for “regional peace and security.”

Moreover, Iran is grappling with significant economic challenges, making it cautious about entering a costly and prolonged conflict, which likely contributes to its reticence. The country is also facing strict sanctions from the U.S. and Europe due to its nuclear program, pushing it closer to alliances with Russia and China.

Compounding these issues, reports suggest that Khamenei’s health is deteriorating, further igniting a quiet power struggle regarding succession. The recent death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash in May has created internal uncertainty about Mojtaba Khamenei potentially taking over at just 55 years old.

The powerful Revolutionary Guard in Iran is expected to have a significant voice in discussions surrounding succession and is perceived to be more inclined towards confrontation with Israel.