On September 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a propaganda video showcasing Russian troops operating BM-21 “Grad” 122mm multiple rocket launchers, firing towards Ukrainian positions from an undisclosed location. According to a report by The New York Times on October 14, Russia has reclaimed several villages in the western border area of Ukraine’s Kursk region that had been invaded over the summer, posing a threat to Ukraine’s control of the occupied territories. These areas are viewed by Ukraine as crucial leverage in negotiations with Moscow to end the war.

Recent developments indicate that Russian forces have intensified their efforts, pushing Ukrainian troops out of their positions in the occupied parts of Kursk, launching several armored assaults. Independent groups using satellite imagery and combat footage have compiled battlefield maps showing that Russian forces have advanced into the western part of the Ukrainian bulge, recapturing at least three villages.

The war mapping website “DeepState,” which maintains close ties with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, reported on October 13 that “the situation in Kursk is not looking good overall,” noting that while Ukrainian forces are taking stabilization measures, regaining lost territory remains extremely challenging.

Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst from the Finnish Blackbird Group, stated that some units of the Russian military have “successfully advanced into the Ukrainian rear, causing issues and losses for Ukraine.” The Blackbird Group also highlighted that Ukrainian forces still control approximately 300 square miles of Russian territory, down from around 400 square miles in the initial weeks of cross-border operations launched in early August.

During a press conference in late August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the offensive in Kursk represents one of the “stages toward ending the war.” To maintain operational security, Ukrainian officials and soldiers have largely remained tight-lipped about the situation in Kursk. However, Zelensky acknowledged on social media on October 14 that the fighting has been intense, stating, “For the past five days, the Russians have been trying to break through our defenses in the Kursk region,” while asserting that Ukrainian forces are “holding strong and counterattacking.”

Yet, every Russian advance in Kursk may diminish the value of Ukraine’s bargaining position. Kastehelmi commented, “The Russian counteroffensive is continuously lowering the political significance of the Ukrainian-controlled areas in Kursk. If this trend continues, Ukrainians may need to reconsider their presence in the region and the future of the entire operation.”