In a recent interview, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) officials discussed the anticipated impact of the weak La Niña phenomenon on this year’s winter weather patterns. According to NOAA, the winter months are expected to bring colder temperatures and more snowfall to the northern regions, while the southern areas may experience drier conditions compared to previous years. The southeastern U.S. is likely to see milder temperatures.

On October 17, NOAA released its climate outlook report, highlighting the presence of a weak La Niña climate pattern this winter. It’s important to note that while the effects of La Niña can vary, generally, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will be lower than what is typically observed. The last significant La Niña event occurred during the 2022-23 winter season.

Currently, we are still in the observation phase of La Niña, and the development of this climate pattern has been relatively slow. Meteorologists at NOAA and other forecasting agencies remain confident that we will see some impacts of La Niña this winter, though not as pronounced as last year’s El Niño.

Experts believe that the next three months will likely exhibit typical La Niña weather patterns. There will be a consistent drop in temperatures across the jet stream that flows over Canada and the northeastern United States. Additionally, high pressure systems off the southeastern coast may lead to warmer weather for that region while colder temperatures persist in the western U.S.

When La Niña effects are in play, we often see active storm paths develop over the interior regions. If storms do occur, many of these may be influenced by low moisture content in the air masses. Compared to the storm paths created by El Niño, which tend to originate farther south, La Niña storms typically track further north. However, the dynamics of La Niña may be counteracted by other missing factors, possibly resulting in a higher probability of severe weather in the southeastern U.S.

This winter’s weather is expected to be more variable compared to last year’s relatively stable conditions. There is a greater likelihood of warmer weather from the southern U.S. to the East Coast, while temperatures in the Northwest and Northern Plains along the Pacific Coast are expected to be lower than average.

In northern Alaska, milder conditions may prevail, while southern parts may experience colder temperatures.

Jon Gottschalck, Chief of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, noted that this winter, polar cyclones might be weaker, which could allow cold Arctic air to push further south than last year.

As for precipitation, NOAA predicts that rain and snowfall amounts will generally be normal, but the southern U.S. is expected to see lower rainfall than average. In contrast, the Northwest, the northern Rockies, and the Great Lakes region may experience above-average precipitation. Central regions of the Midwest and the Appalachians may continue to face drought, but increased rainfall and snow in other areas could help alleviate these conditions.