During this week’s International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings, global financial leaders gathered in Washington, D.C. to discuss pressing issues such as debt, inflation, and interest rates. However, the specter of “Trump 2.0,” referring to the potential return of former President Donald Trump to the White House, loomed large in their minds. Meanwhile, China seized the opportunity to engage in charm offensives directed at America’s allies and partners.

Bloomberg reported that discussions during public seminars, roundtables, and even closed-door dinners frequently turned to the upcoming U.S. presidential election just weeks away and the implications of Trump’s possible second term.

If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, it would indicate a continuation of current policies. On the other hand, Trump has threatened to upend global trade, proposing steep tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and up to 20% on imports from other countries. An IMF official remarked that the contrasting trade policies of the two candidates create “high uncertainty” for markets and decision-makers.

Even discussions at various G20 meetings alluded to the risks associated with a Trump victory. For instance, the G20 finance ministers’ communiqué noted a hopeful outlook for a soft landing for the global economy but warned of heightened risks from factors such as conflict, rising commodity prices, and climate change. It called for a stand against trade protectionism and emphasized the need for faster, more flexible, and effective conflict resolution mechanisms within the World Trade Organization (WTO).

South Korea’s Minister of Planning and Finance, Choi Sang-mok, stated in an interview that regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election, South Korea will continue to invest in the United States. He emphasized that a global free trade framework based on the rule of law is most beneficial for South Korea.

Delegates concerned about the election outcome were busy gathering the latest information. For example, Goldman Sachs hosted a client dinner featuring polling expert Nate Silver as a keynote speaker, while former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who served under Trump, was among the guests at an International Institute of Finance (IIF) dinner. At a JPMorgan investor seminar themed “Is a Trump Victory Inevitable?” speakers included Jim Messina, a former deputy chief of staff during the Obama administration, and senior Trump advisor Scott Bessent.

At the same time, China adopted a more conciliatory approach, actively seeking the support of U.S. allies. This included hopes for a “fresh start” in relations with Japan, easing tensions with India, and improving ties with the UK and Australia to mitigate potential diplomatic frictions that may arise from a Trump victory.

Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at Australia’s Lowy Institute, noted that “China has been unusually enthusiastic about reconciling or improving relations with many countries over the past month.” He added, “As Trump could create chaos, Beijing is looking for friends and partners.” Yuan Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in the U.S., referred to this as a “charm offensive.”

Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, opined that developing countries are eager to strengthen ties with China partly out of concern over the increasing protectionist tendencies of U.S. policy.