In a recent interview, we explored the impact of Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the country’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Ishiba, who gained prominence during the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election, is perceived by some scholars as a “China-friendly” leader, while others describe him as “China-aware.” Interestingly, many believe that Beijing may be more anxious about his victory than pleased.

The LDP has faced scrutiny due to a political donation scandal, prompting current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to announce in August that he would not seek reelection. This decision created uncertainty leading up to the leadership contest, which ultimately saw Ishiba emerge victorious among nine candidates. Reports suggest that he plans to dissolve the House of Representatives on October 9, with a national election scheduled for October 27.

Concerns have arisen regarding Ishiba’s approach to China and how it might disrupt the current dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. To facilitate the discussion, the National Policy Research Institute organized a seminar titled “LDP Presidential Election and the New Prime Minister’s Policy Direction,” gathering several experts to weigh in.

Professor He Shishen from the Japanese and East Asian Studies Center at Fu Jen Catholic University emphasized Ishiba’s significant experience, having served as Japan’s Minister of Defense. He highlighted Ishiba’s unique position as a member of the “defense faction” and noted his leadership in bipartisan talks regarding Japan’s security with Taiwan, showcasing his understanding of cross-strait relations and the broader Indo-Pacific security framework.

Professor He also pointed out that Ishiba does not fully align with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s assertive perspective that “Taiwan’s troubles would mean Japan’s troubles.” He stressed the importance of managing Japan’s relationship with China thoughtfully, given public sentiments against confrontation. According to He, Ishiba is a leader who values dialogue with China while adeptly navigating the U.S.-Japan alliance, suggesting that he could maintain a dynamic balance amid U.S.-China competition.

Elaborating on Ishiba’s nuanced approach, He mentioned that Ishiba is focused on defining Japan’s role in global affairs and cautioned against simplifying his stance as strictly “pro-China” or “pro-Taiwan.” He reaffirmed that while Japan is preparing contingency plans for a possible crisis in Taiwan, it does not seek to provoke China. He believes that Ishiba’s leadership could foster peace in the Indo-Pacific region.

Xie Wensheng, Executive Director of the Oasis Cultural and Educational Foundation, echoed this idea, suggesting that China may have more concerns than satisfaction regarding Ishiba’s election. He noted that Ishiba surrounds himself with advisors who have favorable views towards Taiwan, and his visit to Taiwan in August may reinforce this image. Additionally, the upcoming APEC meeting in Peru and the G20 summit in Brazil—where Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to attend—will provide a backdrop for potential diplomatic engagements between Japan and China, underlining the significance of a possible “Sino-Japanese summit” for Ishiba’s foreign policy.

Dong Liwen, Executive Director of the Foundation for Pacific Peace Research, highlighted the structural complexities in China-Japan relations, pointing out that Xi Jinping has yet to make an official visit to Japan since taking office in 2012. The last official visit by a Japanese Prime Minister to China occurred in 2018 under Shinzo Abe. Dong expressed skepticism regarding the future of Sino-Japanese relations, suggesting that both countries are currently experiencing stagnation and deterioration.

Finally, Su Ziyun, a researcher at the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources within the National Defense Security Research Institute, discussed Japan’s increasing defense budget, which is projected to reach around 43 trillion yen from 2023 to 2027. He anticipates that Ishiba’s administration will continue this trajectory, bolstering military capability. However, he cautioned that while Ishiba’s vision for an “Asian NATO” may face hurdles, a more economically-driven alliance is gradually taking shape.