On September 25, the Chinese Rocket Force made headlines by successfully conducting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch into the Pacific Ocean, marking the first such event in 44 years. The missile reportedly landed in international waters near Hawaii and Australia, and analysts from various think tanks interpret this launch as a significant signal directed at the United States, given that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) seldom tests ballistic missiles in international waters.

The Chinese Ministry of Defense announced the launch, stating that at 8:44 AM, a missile equipped with a training simulation warhead was fired into designated offshore areas and hit its target with precision. Chinese state media outlet Xinhua added that “China had notified relevant countries in advance.”

According to sources reported by Japan’s NHK, Beijing had issued prior notifications to both Australia and the United States regarding the missile training launch, suggesting the missile’s potential landing zone was in international waters off the coast of Australia. The Japanese Ministry of Defense speculated that the missile separated from its main body near Luzon in the Philippines, with its warhead landing in waters south of Hawaii.

Military experts believe the missile type tested could be either the Dongfeng-31 or the Dongfeng-41, asserting that such demonstrated launch capabilities may deter certain nations from attempting nuclear coercion against China.

This test is notable as it represents the PLA’s first full-range ICBM test since May 1980. Chinese military media have suggested, based on international flight notifications, that the missile was launched from Hainan Island and landed over 1,200 kilometers away—significantly surpassing the 9,000 kilometers achieved by the Dongfeng-5 during its 1980 Pacific test.

While the Chinese government has not officially confirmed the missile model used in this launch, analysts like Song Zhongping, a military commentator cited by the South China Morning Post, point out that a reported range of 12,000 kilometers suggests it could be either the Dongfeng-31 or Dongfeng-41. This implies the Rocket Force has robust operational capabilities to counteract potential nuclear threats from other countries.

The Dongfeng-41 was first publicly displayed during the Communist Party’s 70th anniversary celebrations in 2019, with state media claiming its accuracy can reach within 100 meters. From launch sites in China, the missile could target any location globally within 30 minutes, with London reachable in approximately 16 minutes and New York in about 21 minutes.

Military expert Shao Yongling, who has experience with the Rocket Force, opined that the missile likely landed in the South Pacific. He noted that the measurement vessel “Yuanwang-6” had been positioned in the region around September 22, and its current location is presumed to be near the Federated States of Micronesia.

Analysis from Voice of America emphasized that China rarely conducts long-range missile launches into open waters, typically opting for remote provinces like Inner Mongolia for such tests. NHK observed that China’s decision to publicly announce the ICBM launch is quite unusual.

Several defense experts and analysts from think tanks have pointed out that although China claims this test was part of routine military training, historical context suggests it is neither standard procedure nor part of an annual training plan. Given the increasingly tense relations between China and the United States over issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, this launch is seen as a powerful message to the U.S. and a demonstration of military strength.